2008年1月6日日曜日

地球温暖化はノストラダムスの大予言3

「不都合な真実」の英国中学教材の判決を調べた。

宮崎哲弥
「英国の裁判所で間違いが多いので、ちゃんと説明ができる人が
いなければ学校で教えてはいけないと言う判決が下っている」

詳細は丸山康樹の書類を参照。
結局、ガーディアン紙報道を読んでも勢力争いとしか受け取れなかった。

日本テレビ系の「世界一受けたい授業」は、今でも続いているようだが、
「アルゴアの講義(?)」を放映した後、この判決を見ても、放映した内容は
全て正しいと思っているのだろうか。
バラエティ番組だから訂正をしないということか。もしかして、訂正済みか。

昔、ノストラダムスの大予言で儲ける人はえせ占い師、宗教家等の一部の人
だったが、現在わかっている地球温暖化で儲ける人達。

・国から補助金を助成される研究家
・新事業を立ち上げた企業
・余った金を新事業にまわす投機家
・経済を活性化させたい経済界
・税収(固定資産税、法人税、環境税等)を増したい財政機関

・アンチ地球温暖化論を唱えることで儲ける人達もいる。

これだけの業界が集まれば正当性を訴えることもうまくなる。
バイオ燃料のように脱化石燃料システムで、燃料ピラミッドの頂点に立てる
可能性もある。

地球温暖化の根拠の議論は尽きない。
要するに、互いに正しい根拠を見出せないと言うことだろう。

それに、地球温暖化の根拠と歴史的事象が一致しないのは変わらない。



世界一受けたい授業(アルゴア2)



世界一受けたい授業(アルゴア1)



[英語]地球温暖化 101 - アル・ゴア&オプラ (Part 5/5)


[英語]地球温暖化 101 - アル・ゴア&オプラ (Part 4/5)


[英語]地球温暖化 101 - アル・ゴア&オプラ (Part 3/5)


[英語]地球温暖化 101 - アル・ゴア&オプラ (Part 2/5)


[英語]地球温暖化 101 - アル・ゴア&オプラ (Part 1/5)


---情報分析:アルゴアの9つの不都合な真実の裁判---
2007/10/23
http://sunshine.naoe.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp/jun/kougi/k-sougou/071026maruyama2.pdf

情報分析:アルゴアの9つの不都合な真実の裁判
電力中央研究所温暖化対応総括プロジェクトリーダ
丸山康樹首席研究員

要約
 アルゴアの映画「不都合な真実」を英国の中学校で教材に使用することにおいて、Kent 中学の校長で政党メンバーでもあるStewart Dimmock が、洗脳教育であると訴えた。この訴訟にたいして、Burton 判事が9つの間違い「アルゴアにとっての不都合な真実」を指摘したというニュースが流れた。
 WEB で2つの情報を調べ、IPCC のAR4 の結果と比較検討してみた。その結果、9つの間違いのうち、丸山の判断では、「1つはアルゴアの勝ち(さんご礁と温暖化)、1つは引き分け(温暖化と台風)、残りの7 つはアルゴアの負け」となった。政治家の映画を裁判で判断するというのは、ジョークのような気もする。しかし、子供たちに教材として見せる場合には、注意が必要と思う。その意味で、裁判の判決は重要かもしれない。

1.情報源
この資料では、以下の2 つのWEB 情報を対象に考察する。
● 情報1:News Source 1:(黒字)タイムズオンライン
(出典:http://amesei.exblog.jp/6357837/

Timesonline, October 11, 2007, Al Gore’s inconvenient judgment Al Gore was close beating George Bush to the US Presidency
Image :1 of 2

Lewis Smith, Environment Reporter
The nine untruths - in pictures

Al Gore’s award-winning climate change documentary was littered with nine inconvenient untruths, a judge ruled yesterday.
An Inconvenient Truth won plaudits from the environmental lobby and an Oscar from the film industry but was found wanting when it was scrutinised in the High Court in London.

Mr Justice Burton identified nine significant errors within the former presidential candidate’s documentary as he assessed whether it should be shown to school children.

He agreed that Mr Gore’s film was “broadly accurate” in its presentation of the causes and likely effects of climate change but said that some of the claims were wrong and had arisen in “the context of alarmism and exaggeration”.

A UK judge has found nine errors in Al Gore's documentary An Inconvenient Truth after a complaint over whether it should be shown to schoolchildren (Eric Lee)

● 情報2:News Source 2(赤字):英国の新聞
(出典:
http://www.metro.co.uk/news/climatewatch/article.html?in_article_id=69679&inpage_id=59)

METRO.co.uk, Wednesday, October 10, 2007:Judge: Al Gore's nine incovenient truths
Wednesday, October 10, 2007 A High Court judge turned film critic today as he highlighted "nine scientific errors" in Al Gore's Oscar-winning climate change documentary, An Inconvenient Truth.

The judge said some of the errors had arisen in "the context of alarmism and exaggeration" to support the former US vice-president's thesis on global warming.

The Government's decision to show the film in secondary schools had come under attack from father-of-two Stewart Dimmock, a Kent school governor and a member of political group of The New Party, who accused the Government of "brainwashing" children with propaganda.

Mr Justice Burton ruled at London's High Court that the film, much acclaimed by environmentalists, could be shown in schools as part of a climate change resource pack, but only if it was accompanied by new guidance notes to balance Mr Gore's "one-sided" views.

The judge said it might be necessary for the Department of Children, Schools and Families to make clear to teaching staff that some of Mr Gore's views were not supported or promoted by the Government, and there was "a view to the contrary".

The judge said he had viewed the film and described it as "a powerful, dramatically presented and highly professionally produced film".

It was built round the "charismatic presence" of the ex vice president "whose crusade it now is to persuade the world of the dangers of climate change caused by global warming".

But the judge then set out nine alleged errors in the film in which statements were made that were not supported by the current mainstream scientific consensus.


2.9つの不都合な真実(うそと判定された項目)と丸山の判定
以下は、TIMEONLINE(黒字)、METRO.co.uk(赤字)の内容で、両者は微妙に異なるが、全般的に後者の方が、うそだと判定された理由を理解しやすい。青字は丸山のコメントである。

1.「グリーンランド氷床融解と海面上昇」
Burton 判事は、この映画の核となる主張には同意するものの、近未来に海水面が上昇するというのは極端な主張で、人騒がせであると述べた。

Mr Justice Burton did not disagree with the film's core message but said predictions of rapid sea rises in "near future" were alarmist (John McConnico/AP)

ERROR: Mr Gore asserted that a sea-level rise of up to 20 feet would be caused by melting of either West Antarctica or Greenland "in the near future".

The judge said: "This is distinctly alarmist and part of Mr Gore's "wake-up call".

It was common ground that if Greenland melted it would release this amount of water - "but only after, and over, millennia."


○丸山の判定:アルゴアの負け:(誇張しすぎ)
IPCC AR4 では、グリーンランド氷床が融解するには数千年かかり、南極西部氷床(WAIS)は、21 世紀中は融解しないと評価している。ただし、AR4 では、Ice flow が突然早くなる可能性も懸念されているが、現象自体が科学的によくわかっていない。


2.「海面上昇と太平洋の島々」
判事は、「温暖化が原因で太平洋に浮かぶ孤島が沈んでいるという主張は証拠による裏付けがない」と述べた)。

He said the former US vice-president's claim that low-lying Pacific atolls were having to be evacuated because of global warming were not backed up by the evidence (Torsten Blackwood/AFP/Getty)

ERROR: The film had also asserted that low-lying inhabited Pacific atolls "are being inundated because of anthropogenic global warming" - but there was no evidence of any evacuation having yet happened.

○丸山の判定:アルゴアの負け:(誇張しすぎ)
2つの情報の表現は、微妙に異なるので、判定が難しい。しかし、ツバル等の島々が海面上昇の影響を受けていることは確か(原因は様々な長周期振動か?)。しかも、AR4 の結果では意外なことに、赤道域で海面上昇が大きいわけではなく、むしろ、上昇量は少ない。
日本では、AR4の本文は、ほとんど報道されていないので、知っているひとは少ないことも事実。


3.「熱塩循環と氷河期」
判事は、ゴアが映画の中で「メキシコ湾流は停止する、それによって西欧が氷河期を迎える」と述べているが、この内容に対して科学者は同意していない、と述べた。

Mr Gore suggested that the Gulf Stream was likely to shut down, plunging Western Europe into an ice age. The judge said scientists did not share his concerns (OCCAM)

ERROR: The documentary had also spoken of global warming "shutting down the Ocean Conveyor" - the process by which the Gulf Stream is carried over the North Atlantic to western Europe.

The judge said that, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), it was "very unlikely" that the Ocean Conveyor, also known as the Meridional Overturning Circulation, would shut down in the future, though it might slow down.


○丸山の判定:アルゴアの負け:(理解不足)
ゴアの間違い。IPCC AR4 では、21 世紀中は、熱塩循環の停止はありそうもないと評価している。しかしながら、氷期・間氷期などの変化と熱塩循環の関係については、依然として、科学的に良く分かっていない、としている。


4.「CO2 は原因か結果か?鶏と卵の論争」
判事は、ゴアが映画の中で使用している、「過去65万年の二酸化炭素と地球規模の気温の変化」を示したとするグラフの信憑性に疑いを投げかけた。

He also questioned Mr Gore's use of a chart suggesting a 650,000-year correlation between CO2 levels and global temperature (Andrew Milligan/PA)

ERROR: Mr Gore had also asserted - by ridiculing the opposite view - that two graphs,one plotting a rise in C02 and the other the rise in temperature over a period of 650,000 years, showed "an exact fit".

The judge said that, although there was general scientific agreement that there was a connection, "the two graphs do not establish what Mr Gore asserts".


丸山の判定:アルゴアの圧倒的な負け:(理解がまちがい)
PCC AR4 では、氷期のきっかけは、地球軌道の変化としており、フォーラムでも紹介。

しかし、氷期から間氷期にシフトした理由についは、以前として不明であり、CO2 が何故
急激に増加したのか、それによって何故気温が急激に増加したのか、最大の謎である。


5.「チャド湖の枯渇」
判事は、映画の中で「チャド湖の枯渇」が温暖化によるものだとしているが、判決では、他の可能性の方が高いと述べた。

An Inconvenient Truth uses the drying up of Lake Chad as an example of the results of global warming. The judgment said that other factors were more likely (Times Atlas)

ERROR: The drying up of Lake Chad was used in the film as a prime example of a catastrophic result of global warming, said the judge.

"However, it is generally accepted that the evidence remains insufficient to establish such an attribution.

"It is apparently considered to be far more likely to result from other factors, such as population increase and over-grazing, and regional climate variability."


丸山の判定:アルゴアの負け:
チャド湖の枯渇は、ローカルな問題で、おそらく、判事が指摘しているように、人口増加、過剰な放牧、地域的な気候変動が原因であろうと思う(ちょっと自信なし)。アラル海の枯渇は、灌漑水の過剰な使用(綿花栽培)が原因というのは有名な話。


6.「キリマンジャロの雪」
判事は、映画の中に登場する、アフリカ最高峰のキリマンジャロの雪が後退しているのが温暖化によるものであるという主張にも疑問符を付けた。

The judge said that there was no direct evidence that global warming was to blame for the steady disappearance of snow from Mt Kilimanjaro (Professor Lonnie Thompson/Ohio State University/PA)

ERROR: Mr Gore had asserted that the disappearance of snow on Mt Kilimanjaro was expressly attributable to global warming. The judge said this had "specifically impressed" the Environment Secretary David Miliband.

But the scientific consensus was that it cannot be established that the recession of snows on Mt Kilimanjaro is mainly attributable to human-induced climate change.


○丸山の判定:アルゴアの負け
PCC AR4 では、雪面積が減少していることを観測で明確に示している。しかし、キリマンジャロでは、標高が高いので雪が降る。かりに、雪面積が減少しているとしたら、温暖化とは異なるローカルな問題のはず。AR4 では言及していない。別の理由があるのかもしれない(私の勉強不足。)しかし、AR4 では、ネパール等の山岳氷河(過去の蓄積部分)や氷河湖の決壊の可能性などは、温暖化の影響と評価されている。


7.「ハリケーン・カトリーナ」
判事は、アメリカで起きたハリケーン・カトリーナが温暖化の影響によるものとの主張にも疑問符を付けた。

Mr Gore's film ascribes Hurricane Katrina to global warming. The judge said it was "common ground that there is insufficient evidence to show that" (Richard Pohle/TheTimes)

ERROR: Mr Gore ascribes Hurricane Katrina and the consequent devastation in New Orleans to global warming, but there was "insufficient evidence to show that".

○丸山の判定:引き分け
PCC AR4 では、台風は将来温暖化で強度が増加するとしている。しかし、現状のハリケーン・カトリーナが温暖化の影響を受けたものかについては、科学的な意見は分かれている。


8.「北極海の海氷減少と北極熊の死亡」
判事は、北極海の熊が温暖化が原因でおぼれ死んでいるという主張は「事実ではない」と述べた。

Mr Gore said polar bears were drowning for a lack of ice in the Arctic. Not true, said Mr Justice Burton

ERROR: MR Gore had also referred to a new scientific study showing that, for the first time, polar bears were being found that had actually drowned "swimming long distances - up to 60 miles - to find the ice".

The judge said: "The only scientific study that either side before me can find is one which indicates that four polar bears have recently been found drowned because of a storm."

That was not to say there might not in future be drowning-related deaths of bears if the trend of regression of pack ice continued - "but it plainly does not support Mr Gore's description".


○丸山の判定:アルゴアの負け
北極熊が、60 マイルも泳いで、溺れ死んだというのはジョークの類か?判事が言うように、嵐で、4 匹の北極熊が溺れ死んだ、というのが真実であろう。ただし、北極の海氷が溶けるということは間違いない。ちょっと、口が滑ったか?


9.「さんご礁と温暖化」
判事は、珊瑚礁の損傷が温暖化によるものという主張にも疑問を投げかけた。もっと事実は複雑であると彼は述べた。

Mr Gore said coral reefs were bleaching because of global warming. The judge said the scientific picture was more complex than that (Damian Thomson/Australian Institute of Marine Science)

ERROR: Mr Gore said in the film that coral reefs all over the world were bleaching because of global warming and other factors.

The judge said the IPCC had reported that, if temperatures were to rise by 1-3 degrees centigrade, there would be increased coral bleaching and mortality, unless the coral could adapt.

But separating the impacts of stresses due to climate change from other stresses, such as over-fishing, and pollution was difficult.


○丸山の判定:アルゴアの勝ち
これは、IPCC WG2 の結果では、現在でも温暖化影響が検出できる唯一の例として、さんご礁の白化を挙げている。もちろん、オニヒトデや乱獲などの原因もあるが、温暖化影響にもっとも脆弱(弱い)な生態系は、さんご礁であるということは間違いない。



---【ロンドン=森千春】英高等法院は10日、アル・ゴア前米副大統領が地球温暖化について---
2007年10月12日0時9分 読売新聞
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/world/news/20071011i312.htm

 警告した映画「不都合な真実」について、政治的に偏向し、部分的に誤りがあるとして、学校での上映に際して是正措置をとるよう求める判決を下した。
 判決言い渡しで裁判官は、グリーンランドを覆う氷が溶けて「近い将来に」水面が7メートル上昇するかもしれないというくだりは、「科学的な常識から逸脱している」と指摘。地球温暖化でアフリカ最高峰キリマンジャロの雪が後退しているという主張も科学的裏付けがないとの判断を示した。ただ、「地球温暖化が人為的な原因で起きている」という全体のメッセージについては、妥当だと認めた。
 英国では、教育省が環境教育の一環として、「不都合な真実」のDVDを学校に配布。
 英南部ケント州に住む2児の父親が、学校での政治宣伝を禁じた教育法に反するとして、上映禁止を求めて、裁判を起こしていた。


---ゴア氏映画「不都合な真実」は「不都合」…英高等法院---
ZAKZAK 2007/10/12
http://www.zakzak.co.jp/gei/2007_10/g2007101225.html

 地球温暖化を警告したゴア前米副大統領のドキュメンタリー映画「不都合な真実」の内容が「政治的だ」などとして、英国の中等学校で上映しないように保護者が求めた訴訟で、英高等法院は10日、「大筋で正確である」として原告の訴えを退けたものの、映画には9つの「科学的な間違い」があると指摘した。

 BBC放送などによると、判決は、映画では南極やグリーンランドの氷が解けることにより、近い将来、海面が最大6メートル上昇する可能性があるとされたが、実際には「(科学的な常識では)数千年以上かかる」と指摘した。

 判決は、授業などで上映する際に、教師らが議論となっていることを生徒らに指摘すべきだとした。(共同)


---地球温暖化の危機を訴えたドキュメンタリー映画「不都合な真実」でアカデミー賞---
http://www.mainichi-msn.co.jp/kokusai/news/20070301k0000e030024000c.html

 「長編ドキュメンタリー賞」を受賞した米前副大統領、アル・ゴア氏を地元テネシー州の民間調査団体が26日、「自宅では電気やガスを浪費している。偽善者だ」と批判、ホームページでゴア氏宅の電力消費量などを暴露した。
 AP通信などが報じたことから同団体には28日だけで400件の電話が殺到、波紋を広げている。
 民間団体は同州の「テネシー政策調査センター」。同州ナッシュビルのゴア氏宅の電力消費量(公開データ)などをホームページに掲載し、「一般市民の20倍は使っている」と指摘した。
 昨年1年間の電気、ガス代は計約3万ドル(約350万円)にのぼるという。
 同センターのドリュー・ジョンソンズ代表は毎日新聞の取材に「市民に資源の節約を訴えるのであれば自分が率先すべきだ」と批判、「アカデミー賞より『見事な偽善者』として表彰すべきだ」と話した。
 AP通信によると同センターは保守系で、「不都合な真実」を「必要以上に地球温暖化を誇張している」と批判している。ゴア氏宅は約900平方メートル。米国で昨年新築された家屋(平均)の約4倍の広さで、温水プールもある。
 ゴア氏の広報官は「消費した電力とほぼ同量の資源を太陽エネルギーの活用などで再生している」と述べている。


---『不都合な真実』をめぐる英国の訴訟:資金源が明らかに---
2007年10月16日
http://wiredvision.jp/blog/wiredscience/200710/20071016135728.html

アル・ゴア前米副大統領が地球温暖化について警告した映画『不都合な真実』のDVDが学校で視聴されているのは、学校での政治宣伝を禁じた教育法に反するとして、上映禁止を求めて裁判が起こされていた英国。



同国の高等法院は10日(現地時間)、『不都合な真実』の内容には部分的に誤りがあるとして、学校での上映に際して是正措置をとるよう求めた(判決の意に沿う新しい指導要領が公表されているため、訴えの利益が失われたとして、訴訟は棄却)。



一方、この提訴を行なったStewart Dimmock氏が、『New Party』という小さな政治団体から資金援助を受けていることが報道されている



New Partyは、その議長であるRobert Durward氏が経営する鉱山会社、英Cloburn Quarry社から、ほぼ100%の資金提供を受けている。



『The Guardian』紙の報道によると、Durward氏は『Scientific Alliance』の創設者でもある。



Scientific Allianceは、かなり前から温暖化は疑わしいという主張を行なってきた団体で、2004年には、米Exxon Mobil社が支援するマーシャル研究所と共同で気候変動に関する報告書(PDFファイル)を書いている。



Durward氏は、一市民として、「今こそ、Tony Blair首相は『第4の道』を選択し、戒厳令を宣言して、学校や病院や街の通りに英国陸軍を出動させる時だ」という素晴らしい感情論を表明したこともある。



Dimmock氏の訴訟費用は、「教室に政治を持ち込ませない」をスローガンに掲げて9月半ばに創設された『Straightteaching.com』からも提供されている。



これまでのところ、Dimmock氏の訴訟は、Straightteaching.comの主張を全面に押し出した形で進んでいる。



彼らは、その最終目的を不気味なほどコミンテルン風の散文で、「学校に入り込んでいる党派政治的コンテンツの具体例を探し出し、監視する」と説明している。



Straightteaching.comの創設には、保守党の政治家Derek Tipp氏も部分的に関与しているが、団体への資金の出所について、Tipp氏はThe Guardian紙に対し「他にも大勢が関係しているが、私の口からそれを言うことはしたくない」と語った。



ゴア元副大統領の映画提訴の背景』[The Guardian紙]



WIRED NEWS 原文(English)




--- the man behind court attack on Gore film---
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,,2190770,00.html#article_continue

Fuel and mining magnate backed UK challenge to An Inconvenient Truth

Jamie Doward, home affairs editor
Sunday October 14, 2007
The Observer

The school governor who challenged the screening of Al Gore's climate change documentary in secondary schools was funded by a Scottish quarrying magnate who established a controversial lobbying group to attack environmentalists' claims about global warming.

Stewart Dimmock's high-profile fight to ban the film being shown in schools was depicted as a David and Goliath battle, with the Kent school governor taking on the state by arguing that the government was 'brainwashing' pupils.

A High Court ruling last week that the Oscar-winning documentary would have to be screened with guidance notes to balance its claims was welcomed by climate-change sceptics.

The Observer has established that Dimmock's case was supported by a powerful network of business interests with close links to the fuel and mining lobbies. He was also supported by a Conservative councillor in Hampshire, Derek Tipp.

Dimmock credited the little-known New Party with supporting him in the test case but did not elaborate on its involvement. The obscure Scotland-based party calls itself 'centre right' and campaigns for lower taxes and expanding nuclear power.

Records filed at the Electoral Commission show the New Party has received nearly all of its money - almost £1m between 2004 and 2006 - from Cloburn Quarry Limited, based in Lanarkshire.

The company's owner and chairman of the New Party, Robert Durward, is a long-time critic of environmentalists. With Mark Adams, a former private secretary to Tony Blair, he set up the Scientific Alliance, a not-for-profit body comprising scientists and non-scientists, which aims to challenge many of the claims about global warming.

The alliance issued a press release welcoming last week's court ruling and helped publicise Dimmock's case on its website. It also advised Channel 4 on the Great Global Warming Swindle, a controversial documentary screened earlier this year that attempted to challenge claims made about climate change.

In 2004 the alliance co-authored a report with the George C Marshall Institute, a US body funded by Exxon Mobil, that attacked climate change claims. 'Climate change science has fallen victim to heated political and media rhetoric ... the result is extensive misunderstanding,' the report's authors said.

Martin Livermore, director of the alliance, confirmed Durward continued to support its work. 'He provides funds with other members,' Livermore said.

In the Nineties, Durward established the British Aggregates Association to campaign against a tax on sand, gravel and rock extracted from quarries. Durward does not talk to the media and calls to the association requesting an interview were not returned last week. However, he has written letters to newspapers setting out his personal philosophy. One letter claimed: 'It is time for Tony Blair to try the "fourth way", declare martial law and let the army sort out our schools, hospitals and roads.'

He later clarified his comments saying he was merely pointing out that the army had done a 'fantastic job' in dealing with the foot and mouth crisis. He has also asked whether there has been a 'witch-hunt against drunk drivers'.

Dimmock also received support from a new organisation, Straightteaching.com, which calls for politics to be left out of the classroom. The organisation, which established an online payment system for people to make contributions to Dimmock's campaign, was set up by Tipp and several others. Its website was registered last month to an anonymous Arizona-based internet company.

Tipp, who is described on the website as having been a science teacher in the Seventies and Eighties, declines to talk about who else is backing it. 'There are other people involved but I don't think they want to be revealed,' he said.

He said he thought his organisation could bring more cases against the government. 'There are a lot of people who feel the climate change debate is being hyped up,' Tipp said. 'To try to scare people into believing the end is nigh is not helpful. We've been contacted by other teachers who raised concerns. There's a lot of interest, especially from people in the US.'


---Gore's climate film has scientific errors - judge---
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2007/oct/11/climatechange/print
· Court rules documentary can be shown in schools
· Presentation is 'broadly accurate' but lacks balance

* David Adam
o David Adam, environment correspondent
o The Guardian,
o Thursday October 11 2007

Al Gore's Oscar-winning documentary on global warming, An Inconvenient Truth, was yesterday criticised by a high court judge who highlighted what he said were "nine scientific errors" in the film.

Mr Justice Barton yesterday said that while the film was "broadly accurate" in its presentation of climate change, he identified nine significant errors in the film, some of which, he said, had arisen in "the context of alarmism and exaggeration" to support the former US vice-president's views on climate change.

The film was broadly welcomed by environmental campaigners and scientists on its release last year, and while they did point out that it contained mistakes, these were relatively small and did not detract from the film's central message - that global warming was a real problem and humans had the technology to do something about it.

The judge made his remarks when assessing a case brought by Stewart Dimmock, a Kent school governor and a member of a political group, the New party, who is opposed to a government plan to show the film in secondary schools.

The judge ruled that the film can still be shown in schools, as part of a climate change resources pack, but only if it is accompanied by fresh guidance notes to balance Mr Gore's "one-sided" views. The "apocalyptic vision" presented in the film was not an impartial analysis of the science of climate change, he said.

The judge also said it might be necessary for the Department of Children, Schools and Families to make clear to teachers some of Mr Gore's views were not supported or promoted by the government, and there was "a view to the contrary".

He said he had viewed the film and described it as "powerful, dramatically presented and highly professionally produced", built around the "charismatic presence" of Mr Gore, "whose crusade it now is to persuade the world of the dangers of climate change".

The mistakes identified mainly deal with the predicted impacts of climate change, and include Mr Gore's claims that a sea-level rise of up to 20ft would be caused by melting in either west Antarctica or Greenland "in the near future".

The judge said: "This is distinctly alarmist and part of Mr Gore's 'wake-up call'." He accepted that melting of the ice would release this amount of water - "but only after, and over, millennia."

Despite his finding of significant errors, Mr Justice Barton said many of the claims made by the film were supported by the weight of scientific evidence and he identified four main hypotheses, each of which is very well supported "by research published in respected, peer-reviewed journals and accords with the latest conclusions of the IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]."

The nine points: fact or fallacy?

· The film claimed that low-lying inhabited Pacific atolls "are being inundated because of anthropogenic global warming" - but there was no evidence of any evacuation occurring

· It spoke of global warming "shutting down the ocean conveyor" - the process by which the gulf stream is carried over the north Atlantic to western Europe. The judge said that, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, it was "very unlikely" that the conveyor would shut down in the future, though it might slow down

· Mr Gore had also claimed - by ridiculing the opposite view - that two graphs, one plotting a rise in C02 and the other the rise in temperature over a period of 650,000 years, showed "an exact fit". The judge said although scientists agreed there was a connection, "the two graphs do not establish what Mr Gore asserts"

· Mr Gore said the disappearance of snow on Mt Kilimanjaro was expressly attributable to human-induced climate change. The judge said the consensus was that that could not be established

· The drying up of Lake Chad was used as an example of global warming. The judge said: "It is apparently considered to be more likely to result from ... population increase, over-grazing and regional climate variability"

· Mr Gore ascribed Hurricane Katrina to global warming, but there was "insufficient evidence to show that"

· Mr Gore also referred to a study showing that polar bears were being found that had drowned "swimming long distances to find the ice". The judge said: "The only scientific study that either side before me can find is one which indicates that four polar bears have recently been found drowned because of a storm"

· The film said that coral reefs all over the world were bleaching because of global warming and other factors. The judge said separating the impacts of stresses due to climate change from other stresses, such as over-fishing, and pollution, was difficult

· The film said a sea-level rise of up to 20ft would be caused by melting of either west Antarctica or Greenland in the near future; the judge ruled that this was "distinctly alarmist"

· This article was amended on Friday October 12 2007. A panel in the article above listing the significant errors found by a high court judge in Al Gore's documentary on global warming was labelled The nine points, but contained only eight. The point we omitted was that the film said a sea-level rise of up to 20ft would be caused by melting of either west Antarctica or Greenland in the near future; the judge ruled that this was "distinctly alarmist". The missing point has been added.

---科学の授業では進化論を…米科学アカデミーが提言---
ZAKZAK 2008/01/05
http://www.zakzak.co.jp/top/2008_01/t2008010507_all.html

 米科学アカデミーは4日までに、現代生物学の根幹として進化論を公立校の科学の授業で教えるべきだとする報告書を発表、キリスト教保守派などによる進化論否定の動きに危機感を表明した。
 同趣旨の報告書は1984年、99年に続き3回目。
 報告書は、DNAの変異と、変異の蓄積による新種の誕生を基にした進化論は現代科学の中でも最も重要な概念だと強調。ウイルスの変異がもたらす感染症の拡大や地球温暖化などの環境危機にも、生物的進化の特質を踏まえた対応策が必要だとした。
 米国内では進化論を否定し、知的な存在が人間を創造したとする「インテリジェント・デザイン(ID)説」などが1980年代から支持を拡大。ブッシュ大統領も2005年に「進化論とは別の見方も教えるべきだ」と主張するなど、公教育と宗教をめぐって社会問題となっている。
 ロイター通信によると、06年のギャラップ社の世論調査で、米国人のほぼ半数が「人類は過去1万年以内に神によって現在の姿に創造された」と回答した。(共同)

0 コメント: