2010年6月4日金曜日

核弾頭数

英国の核弾頭数が報道された。

FASによる各国の核弾頭数 Wed, 26 May 2010 13:18:59
Country Strategic Non-Strategic Operational Total Inventory
Russia 2,600   2,050     4,650    12,000
U.S.   1,968    500     2,468     9,600
France   300    N.A.      300      300
China   180     ?      180      240
U.K.    160    N.A.     <160      225
Israel   80    N.A.     N.A.      80
Pakistan 70-90    N.A.     N.A.     70-90
India  60-80    N.A.     N.A.     60-80
DPRK    <10    N.A.     N.A.      <10

Total:  5,400    2,550     7,700    22,600

報道
国名   核弾頭数
米国    5113
中国    450
イスラエル 150
北朝鮮    0
イラン    0
ミャンマー  0

FASと報道との間では、数値が異なる。
中国やイスラエルの核弾頭数が少なく、北朝鮮、米国はかなり多い。
また、政治が働いたのかもしれない。
最近は、イランやミャンマーの核開発が報道されている。

冷戦復活
ミャンマー核武装へ
イラン 核兵器開発情報入手済み
中国核弾頭 頻繁移動で、事故の危険性
Status of World Nuclear Forces


---英ヘイグ外相が核弾頭数の上限数に言及「225発未満」---
2010.05.27 Web posted at: 09:37 JST Updated - CNN
http://www.cnn.co.jp/world/AIC201005270002.html

ロンドン(CNN) 英国のヘイグ外相は26日、英国の保有する核兵器総数を225発未満とするとの方針を示した。

ヘイグ外相が議会で発言した際に明らかにした。同氏は「今こそ我々が保有する兵器に関する情報開示を進めるときだ」としたうえで、「このことが、核保有国と非保有国との間の信頼醸成につながり、ひいては、世界の核兵器数を削減するための将来的な取り組みに貢献するものと考える」と語った。また、現在実践配備済みの核弾頭の総数は160発であることも明言した。

英国はかねてより、160発の核弾頭を実戦配備していることを明らかにしていた。これらの核弾頭は1998年以降、弾道ミサイル搭載潜水艦4隻の戦隊に搭載されている。

今回の英国の公表は、近年のフランスや米国の動きに続くものだ。

米国は今月、備蓄核兵器数を5113発であると公表している。4月には、新型核兵器の開発中止を決定するとともに、核不拡散条約を順守する非核国に対して核兵器による攻撃を行わないとする方針を明らかにした。また同月にはロシアとの間で、自国の備蓄核兵器を3分の1程度削減するとする新条約に調印した。

一方、フランスは2008年に、核兵器保有数を約300発にすると発表している。

---Burma's nuke plans problematic for Asia---
updated Tuesday, June 1, 2010 9:12 am TWN, By Kavi Chongkittavorn , The Nation (Thailand)/Asia News Network
http://www.chinapost.com.tw/commentary/the-china-post/special-to-the-china-post/2010/06/01/258831/Burmas-nuke.htm

BANGKOK -- The U.S. action was swift following confirmation of a North Korean ship with suspicious arms cargoes docking in Burma last month in violation of the U.N. Security Council Resolution 1874. A few days later, in the third week of April, the U.S. State Department dispatched an urgent message to the Southeast Asian capitals recommending the scheduled ASEAN-U.S. Economic Ministers' roadshow in Seattle and Washington, D.C., from May 3-5, proceed without the Burmese representation at “all levels.” The drastic move surprised the leaders of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

The American ultimatum was not a bluff but a genuine show of frustration. This time Washington wanted to send a strong signal to Burma and the rest of ASEAN that unless something was done about Burma's compliance with the relevant U.N. resolutions on North Korean sanctions, there would be dire consequences. Political issues aside, Burma's nuclear ambition can further dampen ASEAN-U.S. relations in the future. Already, there was the first casualty when the U.S. downgraded the high-powered economic roadshow which was meticulously planned months ahead between the Office of U.S. Trade Representatives and ASEAN economic ministers through the U.S.-ASEAN Business Council.

Since nearly all ASEAN countries, except Singapore, decided to dispatch their trade or industry ministers to join the campaign, they agreed the roadshow should continue without the Burmese delegation as requested by the U.S. After some bargaining, the U.S. softened its position agreeing to accept a representation at the charge d'affaires level from the Burmese Embassy in Washington DC. But Rangoon chose to opt out as it wanted diplomats directly dispatched from Rangoon. Without a consensus in ASEAN, a new name - absurd as it seemed - was in place, as the Southeast Asia Economic Community Road Show. It would be a one-time only designation.

When Kurt Campbell, Assistant State Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs returned to Burma for the second time recently, he was blunt telling the junta leaders to abide and fully comply with the U.N. Security Council Resolution 1874. That has been Washington's serious concern due to the growing link between North Korea and Burma and their existing transfer of nuclear-related technology. Last June, a North Korean ship, Kang Nam, was diverted from going to Burma after being trailed by the U.S. navy.

Since 2000, Western intelligence sources have been gathering evidence of North Korea providing assistance to Burma to build a nuclear reactor that can produce graded plutonium used in assembling future weapons of mass destruction. Last year, reports were released using data collected from two defecting Burmese military officers, intercepted calls and messages as well as human intelligence along Thai-Burmese border, all finger-pointing to Burma's nuclear ambitions.

When they came out last fall, skepticism was high among military experts and strategists on the junta's nuclear intentions. Most said there was insufficient evidence. Some viewed them as attempts to further discredit the regime's international standing. As additional interviews were conducted, especially with a former major in the Burmese Army, Sai Thein Win, who was directly involved with the recent secret nuclear program, it has become clearer that Burma is investigating nuclear technology. This week, a special report on a huge new body of information, with expert comment from a former official working for the International Atomic Energy Agency, will be released.

As such, it will have far-reaching implications on ASEAN and its members, who signed the 1995 Southeast Asian Nuclear Weapons Free Zone (SEANWFZ) and Non-proliferation Treaty. ASEAN is currently working hard to persuade all major nuclear powers to sign the protocol to the SEANWFZ. The grouping has even delayed China's eagerness to accede to the protocol.

Further complicating the issue, ASEAN has not reached a consensus on how its members would move forward with a common approach on nuclear energy and security. In general, ASEAN backs nuclear disarmament, which the Philippines has played a leading role as chair of the just concluded Review Conference of State Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation on Nuclear Weapons. ASEAN also backs the ongoing efforts of U.S. and Russia over non-proliferation.

One sticky problem is that Thailand, Brunei Darussalam, Burma, and Indonesia have yet to ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. In the case of Indonesia, it is on the Annex 2 list of the treaty which, to enter into force, must be rectified by all 44 states on this list. At the upcoming ASEAN summit in Hanoi (October), ASEAN leaders will study a matrix of common positions that have been or could be taken up by ASEAN. It remains to be seen how ASEAN would approach some of the sensitive issues such as the South China Sea, climate change and issues related to nuclear technology.

At the recent Nuclear Summit in Washington, leaders from Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand were invited by U.S. President Barack Obama to share their views on non-proliferation and peaceful use of nuclear energy. They supported the summit's plan of action to prevent nuclear terrorism. All these ASEAN members have long-term plans to build nuclear power plants for peaceful use as energy sources. Vietnam has long decided on building two, while Thailand is planning one in the next ten years. Indonesia has serious parliamentary support to explore a nuclear option. Even the Singapore Economic Strategies Committee has recommended nuclear energy should be considered as a possible long-term solution to the island's energy security. Obama will certainly raise the issue again when he visits Indonesia in the second week of this month.

What is most intriguing has been the lack of serious attention from the Thai security apparatus regarding the nuclearisation of Burma. Apart from the two informal meetings convened by the Defence Council at the end of last year, the topic has been discussed only among a handful of military intelligence officials who have worked closely with their Australian counterparts. The National Security Council still does not believe Burma has that kind of ambition, not to mention the overall nuclear capacity to embark on the controversial program. Concerned officials argued that domestic problems still have precedence.

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