2012年3月12日月曜日

Super Tuesday

米共和党大統領選州投票の集中日だった。
 スーパーチューズデーでロムニー前マサチューセッツ州知事がサントラム
元上院議員らを突き放せなかった背景には、「経済に強い」という看板が
「打倒オバマ」の決め手にならなくなった事情もある。

Mitt Romney
・13勝
・共和党の候補者指名を獲得し、オバマ大統領をホワイトハウスから追い
 出す
・代議員計415人獲得

Rick Santorum
・7勝
・代議員計176人獲得
・キリスト教福音派推薦(?)

Newt Gingrich
・2勝
・代議員計105人獲得

Ron Paul
・0勝
・代議員計47人獲得

米共和党党大会
・代議員総数の過半数に当たる1144人の獲得が必要。

Santorum勢は、Romneyと戦うために、似た主張のGingrichに撤退を要望
したようだ。Gingrichは拒否。
SantorumとGingrichの代議員獲得数を足し合わせても、Romneyには届か
ないが、宗派間争いでは、新興宗派に勝てると読んだのかもしれない。
政府の政策により、景気が浮揚し始めた米国国民は、経営者を必要と
しない可能性もある。
共和党だけだった中傷合戦にオバマ参入。
オバマも大統領選の状況を理解しているのだろう。

オバマ 新国防戦略
GOP Negative Campain
GOP Floria ads


Made in America - Obama for America 2012 Ad Video


Sarah Palin: I voted for Newt Gingrich


---ロムニー氏 6勝 スーパーチューズデー---
2012年3月8日 朝刊
http://www.tokyo-np.co.jp/article/world/news/CK2012030802000036.html

 【ワシントン=竹内洋一】十一月の米大統領選に向けた野党共和党の候補選びで、六日のスーパーチューズデーに行われた十州の予備選・党員集会の大勢が七日判明し、本命視されるロムニー前マサチューセッツ州知事(64)が、焦点の中西部オハイオ州を含む過半数の六州で勝利。候補者指名獲得に向けて大きく前進した。追うサントラム元上院議員(53)も三州を制した。
 ロムニー氏は、地盤の東部マサチューセッツ、バーモント両州に加え、南部バージニア、西部アイダホの両州で圧勝した。オハイオ、アラスカ両州では、サントラム氏を僅差で下した。これまでに予備選・党員集会が行われた二十二州で通算十三勝となった。
 ロムニー氏は六日夜、マサチューセッツ州ボストンで「共和党の候補者指名を獲得し、オバマ大統領をホワイトハウスから追い出す」と勝利宣言した。
 保守派のサントラム氏は保守色の濃い南部テネシー、オクラホマ、中西部ノースダコタの三州で勝利し、通算勝利を七に伸ばした。
 ギングリッチ元下院議長(68)は地元ジョージア州を死守し、二勝目を挙げた。ポール下院議員(76)は初勝利はならなかった。三氏とも選挙戦にとどまる考えを表明し、指名争いの決着は四月以降に持ち越される可能性が高くなった。
 八月の党大会で指名を得るには予備選や党員集会を通じ、代議員総数の過半数に当たる千百四十四人の獲得が必要。AP通信の推計によると、ロムニー氏はこれまでの二十二州で代議員計四百十五人を獲得。サントラム氏は百七十六人、ギングリッチ氏が百五人、ポール氏が四十七人で続いている。
<スーパーチューズデー> 米大統領選に向けた民主、共和両党の候補者選びで、多数の州の予備選・党員集会が集中して行われる火曜日(チューズデー)。過去には、候補者争いがここで事実上決着した例が多い。


---軋む米国:12年大統領選 スーパーチューズデー ロムニー氏、抜け出せず 渡辺靖・慶応大教授の話---
毎日新聞 2012年3月8日 東京朝刊
http://mainichi.jp/select/world/news/20120308ddm007030187000c.html

<軋(きし)む米国>
◇共和党内に分裂が顕著--渡辺靖・慶応大教授(米研究)
 ロムニー氏が優位を固めたが決定打とはならなかった。南部の保守的な州で予備選・党員集会が続くため、サントラム氏はまだ戦いを続けられるだろう。
 組織力があり、豊富な資金力を持つロムニー氏だが、波に乗れていない。地元ミシガン州や、同じモルモン教徒が多いアリゾナ州でも過半数の支持を得られなかった。各州知事や連邦議員、党幹部など共和党本流の支持を受けるが、保守派は共和党本流に不信感を抱き、ロムニー氏をその象徴とみなしている。
 今回の共和党候補者選びにはスターが見当たらず、オバマ大統領とクリントン国務長官が争った08年の民主党候補者選びの熱気にはほど遠い。オバマ氏とクリントン氏にはイデオロギー的な対立はあまりなかったが、今回の共和党では分裂が顕著だ。
 中傷合戦が激化し、選挙戦が長引くほど筆頭候補のロムニー氏のイメージが傷つき、資金面でも疲弊する。オバマ陣営は中道票・浮動層を取り合う可能性がある穏健派のロムニー氏を一番警戒しているが、現状はオバマ陣営に有利に働いている。【聞き手・岩佐淳士】


---景気復調、薄れる強み 「経済に強い」ロムニー氏---
2012年3月8日0時17分
http://www.asahi.com/international/intro/TKY201203070805.html

 緩やかな回復傾向にある米国経済が、大統領選に影響を与えている。6日のスーパーチューズデーでロムニー前マサチューセッツ州知事がサントラム元上院議員らを突き放せなかった背景には、「経済に強い」という看板が「打倒オバマ」の決め手にならなくなった事情もある。
 「選挙戦はまだ続くが、本当の変化はもうすぐ実現する」。ロムニー氏は6日夜、マサチューセッツ州ボストンの集会で、勝利が近いと強調した。しかし現実には、サントラム氏に猛追を許した。米経済が上向いてきたことが響いている。
 ロムニー氏は投資ファンド経営や州知事の実績から「経済に強い」が売り文句。高止まりする米失業率をやり玉に挙げ、「オバマ大統領は経済政策に失敗した」と訴えてきた。


---Gingrich not quitting, bets on must-win South---
Originally published Wednesday, March 7, 2012 at 5:22 PM
By THOMAS BEAUMONT
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2017692857_apusgingrich2ndldwritethru.html

Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich must win next week's Alabama and Mississippi primaries to justify staying in the race, an aide said Wednesday as the campaign abandoned scheduled events in Kansas ahead of that state's Saturday caucuses to stay focused on the South.

PELL CITY, Ala. -

Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich must win next week's Alabama and Mississippi primaries to justify staying in the race, an aide said Wednesday as the campaign abandoned scheduled events in Kansas ahead of that state's Saturday caucuses to stay focused on the South.

"These states we're focusing on, Alabama and Mississippi, are the next two best opportunities on the calendar," Gingrich spokesman R.C. Hammond told reporters in Montgomery, at the outset of a daylong Gingrich campaign trek across Alabama.

Gingrich defiantly rejected calls from supporters of rival Rick Santorum to quit the race so Santorum can go head to head with front-runner Mitt Romney. Gingrich won only his home state of Georgia on Super Tuesday, out of 10 states that voted.

Stuart Roy, an adviser to the Red, White and Blue Fund, a super political action committee supporting Santorum, said Gingrich staying in the race will only be "a hindrance to a conservative alternative to Romney. And Romney simply won't be the conservative alternative to Obama."

Gingrich swatted away the unsolicited advice and said he would push his campaign forward.

"We are staying in this race because I believe it is going to be impossible for a moderate to win the general election," he said, making a now-familiar dig at front-runner Mitt Romney.

Gingrich also argued that Santorum, whom Gingrich is battling to be the preferred conservative, was a creature of the establishment.

"There is a big difference between being a good team member and changing the game," he said. "I am not going to go to Washington to be a good team member. I'm going to Washington to change Washington itself."

The reference was to former Sen. Santorum's explanation that he had voted with party leaders, and against his principles at times, to "take one for the team." Santorum has emerged as a favorite of evangelicals for his well-publicized anti-abortion stance, but Gingrich is trying to undercut that image as a principled conservative.

Gingrich said he was staying in the race because Santorum had yet to cement his status as the field's dominant conservative.

"If I thought he was a slam dunk to beat Romney and to beat Obama I would really consider getting out. I don't," Gingrich said in a radio interview Wednesday.

Santorum also is competing aggressively in Alabama and Mississippi, which vote Tuesday. Santorum was in Mississippi on Wednesday and planned to campaign in Alabama on Thursday. Gingrich scheduled appearances in Mississippi on Thursday, as did Romney.

Gingrich spokesman R.C. Hammond said Wednesday that Gingrich must win both Southern states to justify his place in the race. Gingrich's only victories have come in South Carolina's primary on Jan. 21, and in Georgia.

Aides have said he must win the broad swath of Southern states from South Carolina to Texas, which holds its primary May 29. But Gingrich, who represented suburban Atlanta in Congress for 20 years, lost to Santorum in Tennessee on Tuesday.

Santorum spokesman Hogan Gidley has said Santorum would "do really well in the South. Rick's values match up well with the South. His message matches up well in the South."

Gingrich on Tuesday scrubbed six scheduled campaign appearances in Kansas on Friday and Saturday to continue campaigning in Alabama and Mississippi. He planned to remain in the two states through Tuesday's voting.

Gingrich, whose campaign has risen sharply and faded just as quickly, said Tuesday that both states would spark his latest comeback.

"I believe Alabama has a major role to play in setting the stage for the presidential nomination," he said Wednesday in Montgomery. "And I believe only by nominating a solid conservative who is articulate enough to debate Barack Obama this fall and win the debate can we win the election."

It was unclear to what extent Gingrich would benefit from political action committees that have spent heavily supporting him until now.

Chief among them, a group bankrolled largely by Las Vegas Casino Mogul Sheldon Adelson spent $2.7 million on television and radio advertising ahead of the Super Tuesday contests, including in Ohio, Tennessee and Oklahoma, where Gingrich finished third.

The PAC's coordinator, longtime Gingrich aide Rick Tyler, said the group was airing ads in Alabama, Mississippi and Kansas, and would continue them through next week. Tyler declined to say whether donations had increased in light of Tuesday's voting.

Bob Walker, a Washington lobbyist and top Gingrich adviser, said Gingrich can compete outside of the South and intends to contest primaries in Illinois on March 20, and Pennsylvania and New York on April 24.

"There remains an open question as to who is the stronger competitor - not only to Mitt Romney, but who is the person who can beat Obama? " Walker said. "There's a real question of Mitt and Rick's ability to go up against the president."


---No Longer United Against Mitt Romney---
By MICHAEL D. SHEAR and TRIP GABRIEL
Published: March 7, 2012
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/08/us/politics/as-romney-leads-santorum-and-gingrich-turn-on-each-other.html

MONTGOMERY, Ala. - For weeks, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich have been echoes of each other, both aiming their urgent verbal fire at Mitt Romney, the man they are desperate to stop from becoming the leader of the Republican Party.

But the political and geographical imperatives of two important Southern primaries next week are forcing the two men to turn on each other as they seek to demonstrate an ability to unite the party’s fickle, conservative base.

It is a clash that has been building for weeks as both men circled each other warily, mindful that a shot at the White House was at stake. And it is a confrontation that Mr. Romney’s campaign welcomes - though it hopes neither candidate emerges as a threat.

On Wednesday, Mr. Santorum’s campaign and his allies turned gingerly to the urgent challenge: prodding Mr. Gingrich to abandon the race so that conservatives could unite behind Mr. Santorum’s candidacy against Mr. Romney. And a top strategist for Mr. Santorum has been reaching out to a counterpart in the Gingrich campaign over the past three weeks to try to persuade Mr. Gingrich to withdraw for the good of the conservative movement.

Mr. Santorum said that anyone calling on Mr. Gingrich to withdraw was “not doing so with my knowledge.” But he made clear to reporters that he would not mind if it were to happen.

“I’m not saying I don’t want him to get out,” Mr. Santorum said of Mr. Gingrich. “If he wants to get out, I’m all for him getting out.” He added: “I wish President Obama would just hand me the thing. But that’s not going to happen.”

A chorus of appeals for Mr. Gingrich to drop out began at sunrise on Wednesday and was immediately rejected by Mr. Gingrich and his advisers, setting the stage for a weeklong battle in the South ahead of primaries in Alabama and Mississippi on Tuesday.

Stuart Roy, a spokesman for the “super PAC” backing Mr. Santorum, called Mr. Gingrich’s campaign “an obvious nonstarter” and said that “Newt has become a hindrance to a conservative alternative.”

And Richard A. Viguerie, a conservative icon, said in a statement that it had become increasingly clear that “the former speaker can either be a kingmaker or a spoiler, because, to unite conservatives, Gingrich would have to suspend his campaign and endorse Rick Santorum for the Republican nomination for president.”

Advisers and allies of Mr. Gingrich said that he had no intention of quitting. Instead, Mr. Gingrich scaled back his ambitions, scrapping plans to campaign in Kansas before Saturday’s caucuses there in favor of remaining exclusively in Alabama and Mississippi during the next week.

“Let’s finish the game before we figure out who the winner is,” said R. C. Hammond, Mr. Gingrich’s spokesman. He added later: “The campaign will go on for many more months. Nothing is final.”

Rick Tyler, a former top adviser to Mr. Gingrich who now helps run a super PAC on his behalf, called Mr. Santorum “an empty vest” and vowed to continue advertising on Mr. Gingrich’s behalf in the southern states.

“If Mitt Romney weren’t so deeply flawed and Rick Santorum had any ability at all to beat Barack Obama, he might heed the call,” Mr. Tyler said.

The first real test between Mr. Gingrich and Mr. Santorum came on Tuesday when they faced each other in three primaries. Mr. Gingrich won his home state of Georgia but lost to Mr. Santorum in Tennessee and Oklahoma, two states where he had expected to do well.

Those results all but ensure a rematch.

“Candidly, we decided we had to focus much more on Mississippi and Alabama and make sure we do well in these two states next week, and so we’ve shifted time and effort back to here and have added three days to campaign here,” Mr. Gingrich said after a morning rally in Montgomery.

But the question is whether a knockdown, drag-out fight between Mr. Santorum and Mr. Gingrich will end up benefiting Mr. Romney, the man whom both say they want to stop from becoming the Republican Party standard-bearer.

In an interview Wednesday morning on CNBC, Mr. Romney spoke fondly of his Republican rivals, saying that “we do, of course, have some other candidates in the race that have great qualities and are out appealing to their respective constituencies.”

Just hours later, Mr. Romney’s campaign made it clear why he might want all of his rivals to stay in the race: they are dividing up the available delegates, making it harder for any single candidate to catch up with his lead.

“For those guys, it’s going to take some sort of act of God to get to where they need to be on the nomination front,” an adviser to Mr. Romney told reporters during a briefing on Wednesday.

Mr. Santorum and Mr. Gingrich may have to deal with each other before they can confront that dilemma. At his appearance in Alabama, Mr. Gingrich avoided confronting directly the issue of whether he might drop out. But he challenged the depth of change that Mr. Santorum would bring to Washington. He referred to a remark Mr. Santorum made at a recent debate in which he said he voted for legislation as a senator that he did not believe in, for the sake of Republican unity.

“There is a big difference between being a good team member and changing the game,” Mr. Gingrich said. “I’m not one to go to Washington to be a good team member.”

If Mr. Gingrich was feeling discouraged after Tuesday, he did not show it, and neither did the modest crowd at the first of his three rallies in Alabama. They applauded energetically for his standard red-meat lines. A homemade banner defiantly read, “Promise of a Newt Day.”

Michael D. Shear reported from New York, and Trip Gabriel from Montgomery, Ala. Katharine Q. Seelye contributed reporting from Steubenville, Ohio, and Richard A. Oppel Jr. from Lenexa, Kan.

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