2012年4月23日月曜日

シェールガス リスク高か

英国のシェールガス開発が監視付で行われるようになった。
 三菱商事と三井物産は、米国のメキシコ湾岸のLNG基地から両社合計で
約800万トン規模のLNGを輸入することで、米国のセンプラ・エナジーと
基本合意した。

三井物産はシェールガスを液化しLNGとして輸入。

シェールガス開発の規制
仏国:水質汚濁により禁止。
ブルガリア:水質汚濁により禁止。
英国:地震を誘発したため、ドリルによる掘削を一時的に禁止し、
   水圧による掘削を許可。振動モニタによる監視を推奨。
米国:州毎に規制。

沖合でのシェールガスと原油の開発費は、1バレル当り$200以上かかって
いたが、米国の採掘技術が発展したため、単価は下がり始めたとのこと。

シェールガス埋蔵 tcf:Trillion Cubic Feet
アルゼンチン:774tcf程度
豪州:396tcf
ブラジル:200tcf
英国:調査中。見積りでは200tcf
ブルガリア:1-3.5tcf
中国:1275tcf
仏:180tcf
ポーランド:推定187tcf
米国:862tcf
北海(独、蘭、デンマーク沿岸):調査中

原油より安価なLNGが、原発の代替エネルギーと注目されてきた。
開発が進んだシェールガスをLNG化することで、より安価にと計画
したようだったが、環境汚染が発覚し、採掘に規制がかかった。
居住地への直接的な影響を除いた開発に移行しそうだが、環境汚染が
減ったわけではなく、影響の範囲が不明。

JOGMECによる愛知県沖メタンハイドレート掘削準備が終わり、産出試験が
始まる。多くの国が進めているが、未だに成功しておらず、成功すれば
世界初となる。

エネルギー資源を輸入に頼る日本は、リスクを分散し輸入していると言う
が、シェールガスの開発経緯を見ると、市場が確立してから、原油やレア
アースのような価格操作をしたり、環境汚染による高額賠償金転嫁等の
リスクがあり、原油よりもかなり割高と思う。

AP1000 2016年運転開始
環境破壊 シェールガス開発が原因か


---米から初のLNG輸入へ 三菱商事・三井物産---
2012.4.18 05:00
http://www.sankeibiz.jp/business/news/120418/bsd1204180503008-n1.htm

 三菱商事と三井物産は17日、米国のメキシコ湾岸のLNG(液化天然ガス)基地から両社合計で約800万トン規模のLNGを輸入することで、米国のセンプラ・エナジーと基本合意したと発表した。シェールガスと呼ばれる非在来型ガスを液化する。ルイジアナ州のキャメロンLNG基地から、早ければ2016年後半から輸入する。現在、米国政府に輸出認可の申請を行っている。実現すれば、米国がFTA(自由貿易協定)締結国以外にLNG輸出するのは初めて。原発稼働の長期停止見通しで代替火力用のLNG需要が増大する中、調達先多様化やコスト削減につながりそうだ。
 両社は、米センプラ子会社のキャメロンLNGと基本合意した。今後、キャメロンLNGが計画している総額60億ドル(約4800億円)の輸出基地建設(年産1200万トン)への参画も検討する。三井物産は年内にも自社が米国で権益を持つシェールガス田で生産するガスを液化する契約を結ぶ。
 両社の輸入価格は未定だが、先行して米国からの契約を結んだ韓国ガス公社向け輸入価格は、業界筋によると100万BTU(英国熱量単位)当たり9ドル前後とみられる。この価格は「ヘンリーハブ」と呼ばれる天然ガス集積地ルイジアナの相場価格に連動し、液化や輸送コストを加え算出したとされる。これと同等の条件であれば、日本の平均調達価格同17ドル前後と比べて約2分の1に圧縮できることになる。
 米国はシェールガスの生産技術の向上によって生産量が急増する「シェールガス革命」が進行中で、LNG輸出のための基地建設も相次いでいる。ただ、エネルギー安全保障の一環として、ガス輸出はFTA締約国が中心だった。
 これに対し日本政府は、昨秋からイラン原油削減の交渉過程で米国からのLNG輸入を要請、3月末にも枝野幸男経済産業相がチュー・米エネルギー省(DOE)長官と会談し輸出を求めたばかり。米国からのLNG輸入では、三菱商事などに続き、伊藤忠商事や丸紅なども交渉している。
 日本のLNG需要は原発が再稼働しない場合、12年は東日本大震災前の10年比で約3割増の8897万トンに拡大する見通しで、電力各社の燃料費増大の大きな要因となっている。
 米国がLNGをアジア向けに輸出するのは、今年1月に韓国ガス公社とインド国営石油・ガス会社ゲイルがルイジアナ州の別のLNG基地から、それぞれ350万トンずつ輸入する契約に続く。(上原すみ子)

■米国の主なLNG基地
          年産      輸出先
          (開始時期)
 サビンパス    1800万トン 英BG、韓国ガス公社、印ゲイル社など4社
 (ルイジアナ州) (2015年)
 コーブポイント   500万トン 未定
 (メリーランド州)(2017年)
 キャメロン    1200万トン 三井物産、三菱商事
 (ルイジアナ州) (2016年)
 フリーポート    880万トン 未定
 (テキサス州)  (2016年)
 ※生産量はLNG換算


---Shale gas fracking risks exaggerated, insurance broker claims---
Julia Kollewe
guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 17 April 2012 15.51 BST
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/apr/17/shale-gas-fracking-risks-insurance-broker?newsfeed=true

Broker looked at risks posed by fracking and concluded that if firms adhere to best practice, they can be significantly reduced

A leading City firm has defended the controversial practice of fracking for shale gas on the day the government received advice to give it the green light in Britain.

"Shale gas is here to stay," said Neil Smith, chief operating officer of global energy at insurance brokerage Willis. "It's a very cheap form of extraction."

Thousands of new shale gas wells could be drilled across the UK as ministers are expected to accept the advice of the first official government report into fracking. It came despite concerns around the safety of fracking in areas of known seismic activity, such as Lancashire where two wells have caused earthquakes which have damaged the integrity of at least one of them.

Friends of the Earth called for a full scientific assessment of all the impacts of fracking. Tony Juniper, the former director of the green group, said the environmental impact of fracking was "comparable to coal and possibly worse".

An energy report from Willis published on Tuesday looked at the risks posed by fracking - from groundwater and soil contamination to earthquakes - and concluded that as long as shale gas companies adhere to industry best practice, the risks can be significantly reduced.

The casing of the well is crucial, the report said. A well drilled simply with surface and production casing could indeed allow drilling fluid and gas to seep into the water supply, it admitted. But best industry practice is to drill a well with intermediate casing 4,000 feet deep into the layer of rock beneath which lie the vast majority of gas deposits.

"'A Macondo in the shale is a highly unlikely scenario," the report said, referring to the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. The report noted that fracking has been around since the 1950s.

Smith said: "The issues are of a political nature and a lot are born out of ignorance of what the operations are." He expects that with more information, and "greater insistence on best practice being adopted" - possibly through legislation - the concerns around fracking will diminish over time.

The US Environmental Protection Agency, however, found in December that fracking could be to blame for groundwater pollution.

Willis has drawn up a checklist of questions to ask when dealing with shale gas. "In general the market seems to be happy to write this business," said Robin Somerville, global communications director at Willis.

Mark Miller, the chief executive of Cuadrilla Resources, the company behind the Lancashire wells, which caused earthquakes of 2.3 magnitude, was cited in the Willis report as saying: "How far is it between a 2.3 and a 7.5, which knocks down buildings? It's literally millions and millions of times different."

Dominick Hoare of Watkins Syndicate at the Lloyd's of London insurance market said the firm, which is managed by Munich Re, is heavily involved in insuring US shale exploration and production. "With a proper assessment it's a good risk to assume," he said.

Matt Yeldham, the head of casualty at Aegis' marine and offshore liability division, echoed Hoare's comments. "Provided fracking is conducted in an appropriate fashion, it would appear on the whole to present a reasonable risk profile." But he added: "Underwriters are not there to cover long-term health hazard and other latent issues."

The coverage provided and the premium charged depends on the nature and extent of the underwriting information, Willis said. This is especially the case in the environmental impairment liability arena, which offers protection for gradual pollution liability risks associated with hydraulic fracturing.

The Willis report also showed that 2011 was the worst ever year for non-windstorm related losses for the energy market, due to unusually large losses in Canadian oil sands and floating offshore platforms. There were close to $9bn (L5.64bn) of insured and uninsured total losses.


---Exclusive: UK has vast shale gas reserves, geologists say---
By Henning Gloystein and Christopher Johnson
LONDON | Tue Apr 17, 2012 1:03pm EDT
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/17/us-britain-shale-reserves-idUSBRE83G0LE20120417

(Reuters) - Britain may have enough offshore shale gas to catapult it into the top ranks of global producers, energy experts now believe, and while production costs are still very high, new U.S. technology should eventually make reserves commercially viable.

UK offshore reserves of shale gas could exceed one thousand trillion cubic feet (tcf), compared to current rates of UK gas consumption of 3.5 tcf a year, or five times the latest estimate of onshore shale gas of 200 trillion cubic feet.

Reserves of 200 tcf would put the UK in the top 20 countries with the highest shale reserves, alongside Brazil, and 1,000 tcf would put Britain in the same league as estimates for China, the United States and Argentina, top dogs in global shale potential.

There are still no reliable figures available for the UK, and some experts doubt preliminary onshore reserve figures by private companies. Also only around 10 to 20 percent of total reserves are currently deemed recoverable.

But experts say that whatever the final recoverable reserve figure is, it is likely to be big enough to make Britain energy self-sufficient.

"There will be a lot more offshore shale gas and oil resources than onshore," Nigel Smith, subsurface geologist and geophysicist at the British Geological Survey (BGS) said. UK offshore reserves could be five to 10 times as high as onshore, said.

On Tuesday, a UK government report backed the drilling of shale gas onshore after a temporary ban on the controversial extraction technique known as hydraulic fracturing, or fracking.

Britain is well placed for offshore development, with its North Sea oil and gas sector long established.

"We were pioneers in the North Sea with conventional oil and gas and the technology has gone around the world, so why not become one in the unconventional sector," Smith said.

Offshore geological information is already available, and superior to onshore shale reserves data, he said.

He told the British parliament's House of Commons shale gas energy and climate change committee that Britain could become energy self-sufficient if it went offshore with its unconventional oil and gas industry.

The parliamentary committee said that "we recommend that DECC encourage the development of the offshore shale gas industry in the UK, working with HM Treasury to explore the impacts of tax breaks to the sector."

EUROPEAN OFFSHORE SHALE BOOM?

Petroleum engineers say that shale oil and gas reserves of vast potential stretch over different formations across Europe.

"We have potentially huge volumes present in the subsurface - the volumes are mind-blowingly big," Melvyn Giles, global head of unconventional gas and light tight oil at Shell, said of Europe's unconventional gas resources.

"The figures appear to suggest the shale resources are so large that the question is not how much is out there, but how much can be retrieved - how much can be economically accessed in an environmentally acceptable way," he added.

Giles said that although the pace of shale oil and gas development was hugely faster in North America than elsewhere, interest in the industry was building up quickly elsewhere.

"The challenge is being taken on, and there comes a point when this industry will explode out of North America, and in my opinion it will happen when we start to get a few test results showing an economic development outside North America. Just one success will breed interest elsewhere and will help develop these industries outside North America," he said.

Shale is soft, finely stratified sedimentary rock that formed from consolidated mud or clay.

Hydraulic fracturing is the process of creating small cracks, or fractures, in underground rock formations as much as 7,700 meters below ground level to extract gas (and oil) from shale.

Scientists have known for years that shale and other common forms of rock in Europe held hydrocarbons, but until recently they were ignored as either insignificant or uneconomic.

Energy services company Schlumberger said in a research report that there are large shale gas and oil reserves in the North Sea - along the German, Dutch and Danish coasts - as well as in the Baltic Basin.

Geologists at other leading energy companies spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the dramatically higher estimates, but a consensus of optimism about potential European reserves has grown in the hard-headed commercial sector.

Much of the development in Europe may focus offshore after onshore exploration hit setbacks when France and Bulgaria banned exploration over concerns about ground water pollution. Poland, previously thought to be a European leader, recently slashed its reserves estimates by 90 percent.

An offshore future would avoid many of the legal and regulatory challenges that the industry faces in Europe.

Unlike in the United States, where mineral exploration rights are with the private property holder, most European law gives mineral exploitation rights to governments, which provides a serious obstacle to speedy development of onshore shale.

Legal procedures, bureaucracy and haggling over resource valuations can delay exploration and production indefinitely. In France, political opposition to fracking has brought a stop to development of the Paris shale basin.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS

Fracking is blamed for causing earth tremors in northern England and the United States and polluting U.S. ground water. The technique is also expensive, but costs are falling.

"For the offshore industry to become viable, you'd need vastly higher energy costs, perhaps as high as $200 (per barrel) or more. But we're dealing with a finite resource, so it will happen," the BGS's Smith said.

Petroleum economists say that although the current all-in cost of developing offshore shale gas and oil could be as high as $200 per barrel of oil equivalent, unit costs are falling as the fracking industry in United States expands and matures.

"Commercially exploring offshore oil and gas in the North Sea would probably cost four or five times as much as current marginal costs of $50 to $60 required to operate at a profit," one industry expert said.

From its beginnings in the 1980s, U.S. gas production from shale has increased rapidly in the past three years and is expected to account for about half of U.S. output by 2035.

The shale gas industry and UK government are hoping that economies of scale will reduce overheads, bringing costs down to a much lower range within the next decade.

"While these (costs) might be economically unviable at present, 'uneconomic' reserves can become economic quickly as technology and prices shift," the UK parliamentary committee said.

One senior petroleum geologist working for a major oil company estimated that costs of offshore oil production from shale could drop to $60 and $80 per barrel once the exploration technology matures and is used on a larger scale around the world. Oil currently sells at $120 a barrel.

"It's getting cheaper as the industry develops. If costs keep coming down, prices might not have to be so much higher to make the economics work," the geologist said.

While a marginal cost of $200 would require a sharp and sustained rise in oil prices, a drop to below $100 in offshore oil and gas shale recovery costs could become commercially viable in the foreseeable future.

Investment bank Jefferies on Tuesday raised its long-term oil price forecast (2013 onward) for North Sea Brent crude oil to $100 per barrel, an 18 percent increase from its prior assumption of $85.

(Editing by Richard Mably, William Hardy and Jane Baird)


---UPDATE 1-Shale gas fracking gets green light in Britain---
Tue Apr 17, 2012 9:11am EDT
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/17/britain-shale-cuadrilla-idUSL6E8FH5GQ20120417

Recommends UK exploration resume with proper monitoring

* Firms would use "traffic light" tremor warning system

* Could boost infrastructure investment, carbon goals -CBI (Adds responses from Institute of Mechanical Engineers, CBI and Greenpeace, updates link to factbox)

By Alessandra Prentice

LONDON, April 17 (Reuters) - A UK government report on Tuesday backed the exploration of shale gas, which has transformed the U.S. energy market, nearly one year after temporarily banning the drilling method because it had triggered two small earthquakes in Britain.

An expert report commissioned by the government said it was safe to resume fracking, in which pressurised water and chemicals are pumped underground to open shale rocks and release trapped gas, but with tighter rules on seismic monitoring and drilling surveys.

"The risk of seismic activity associated with hydraulic fracking operations is small, and the probability of damage is extremely small. We suggest fracking can continue under our recommendations," one of the report's authors, the British Geological Society's Brian Baptie, said at a briefing.

Activists on both sides of the Atlantic have lobbied politicians to ban hydraulic fracturing also on environmental concerns, including the dangers of pollution of ground water and leakage of gas into the atmosphere. The report did not address those concerns.

The energy ministry is inviting public comment on the report's findings over the next six weeks, after which it will issue its final ruling on the future of UK shale gas exploration.

The experts published their findings after reviewing a series of post-earthquake studies published by Cuadrilla Resources, a UK firm that was forced to halt operations near Blackpool in northwest England after fracking triggered tremors in May 2011.

They also recommended the use of a "traffic light" control system, in which operations are suspended if a red light indicates seismic activity at a threshold of 0.5 or above, well below a level that could cause structural damage on the surface.

The tremors measured near Blackpool last year reached a level of around 2 .

UK engineers welcomed the report's safety recommendations, and the "traffic light" warning system in particular.

"These proposed precautions are a good example of how to help mitigate the risk of any damage caused by seismic activity as a result of shale gas activity," Tim Fox, head of energy and environment at the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, said in a statement.

While the experts agreed with Cuadrilla's studies as a whole, they also said there was not enough data to confirm the company's claim that it was unlikely similar earthquakes would recur.

GREEN WORRIES

Environmental group Greenpeace said the support for fracking to go ahead was "bad news", saying hydraulic fracturing could pose a threat to efforts to diversify away from fossil fuels.

"This would ... be a major blow for the British renewable energy industry, which would see investment hijacked by a new dash for gas," Joss Garman, Greenpeace's senior energy campaigner, said.

France, which has some of Europe's largest shale gas reserves, last year banned the use of fracking on worries about environmental damage.

However, shale gas exploration is seen by some as a positive force in the battle against climate change since the gas releases less carbon into the atmosphere than coal when used to produce electricity.

"Provided safety standards are observed, shale gas could unlock significant new infrastructure investments, help meet our carbon reduction goals and create many new jobs around the UK," a representative of the Confederation of British Industry said in response to the government's fracking report.

In the UK, Cuadrilla has said its site near Blackpool had 200 trillion cubic feet of gas in place, enough to cover UK demand for generations, although experts have cast doubt on the claims.

In the United States the exploration of shale gas has pushed gas prices to 10-year lows, and companies such as Cheniere Energy are gearing up to export the excess fuel.

British gas prices would also come under increasing pressure if UK shale gas exploration were to take off, a representative of British energy supplier npower wrote on the company's energy blog. (Editing by Karolin Schap and Jane Baird)


---The world of shale gas---
April 17, 2012
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/world+shale/6473233/story.html

The development of shale gas extraction could change world energy markets, offering potentially ample supplies that would otherwise tighten in coming years.

In the United States, where hydraulic fracturing or fracking drilling technology is most widely used, it could flip the country from a net importer of natural gas to a net exporter.

But shale gas extraction requires large amounts of water and chemicals, and environmental concerns have led some governments to ban its use or put moratoriums in place.

Here is an alphabetical list of key countries with shale gas reserves and their governments’ legal positions on the fracking technology.

ARGENTINA
At around 774 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of estimated recoverable reserves, the South American country is likely to have the world’s third-biggest reserves in unconventional gas behind China and the United States, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

The government has launched its Gas Plus programme, which promises to give a price guarantee for newly discovered gas.

There are about 50 projects approved under the scheme, many of which correspond to non-conventional gas fields.

AUSTRALIA
Australia has 396 tcf of technically recoverable shale gas resources, according to the EIA, equivalent to about 46 percent of U.S. reserves.

Widespread fears about the impact of hydraulic fracturing on water supplies in Australia have led to calls for a moratorium on the practice in several states. A temporary moratorium is currently in place in eastern New South Wales State.

Australia’s shale gas industry has grown in the past few years but is still far from becoming a major gas producer as high costs and a lack of infrastructure to access the far-flung assets remain hurdles to the industry.

Although there has been speculation that shale gas may rival Australia’s booming coal seam gas industry, experts say significant production is probably a decade away.

BRITAIN
The UK government backed the exploration of shale gas in April, nearly a year after it suspended domestic shale drilling activity when exploration work triggered small earthquakes near Blackpool in northwest England in May.

After reviewing a report into the incident commissioned by Cuadrilla Resources, the company responsible for the work, the government published its own report which gave a provisional green light to shale gas fracking provided tighter rules on seismic monitoring and drilling surveys were implemented.

The energy ministry is inviting public comment on the report’s findings until the end of May 2012, after which it will issue its final ruling on the future of UK shale gas exploration.

BULGARIA & ROMANIA
The Bulgarian government in January banned shale oil and gas exploration through hydraulic fracturing due to environmental concerns following widespread protests.

The government cancelled a shale gas exploration permit to Chevron at Novi Pazar field for which estimates showed reserves of 1 to 3.5 tcf.

Romania’s shale gas industry is still at an early stage, and the country currently has no specific legislation in place and instead uses the same laws that apply to its conventional gas sector.

CHINA
China in January approved shale gas as an independent mining resource, a legal status that may allow more Chinese firms to develop the unconventional energy source.

Foreign companies would not be able to participate in the tenders but could partner with the winning Chinese firms.

The world’s top energy user could hold shale gas reserves around 1,275 tcf, according to the EIA, exceeding those of the United States (862 tcf).

FRANCE
The French government banned the use of hydraulic fracturing last year in the face of concerns about potential environmental damage.

As a result, it has cancelled several shale exploration licences with major energy companies, such as Total SA .

The EIA says France has shale gas reserves of 180 tcf.

POLAND
Poland does not have any law relating specifically to shale gas, but it has launched work on a new tax on shale gas and other hydrocarbons, expected to be ready in the first half of 2012.

The country is pursuing unconventional gas to boost its energy security.

Its estimated shale reserves of 187 tcf are Europe’s biggest of known unconventional gas and could feed domestic consumption for some 300 years. The government has awarded over 100 concessions to mainly foreign companies.

UNITED STATES
Shale gas drilling in the United States is mostly regulated on a state-by-state basis.

The Environmental Protection Agency is currently studying fracking and its impact on drinking water, with a preliminary report expected this year. The final analysis will be released in 2014.

The Interior Department also is updating rules for fracking on public lands.

A few states do not allow fracking. New Jersey lawmakers recently agreed to a one-year ban on the practice, and New York has a moratorium in place.

Other states have implemented regulations to keep a closer eye on drilling until federal regulators weigh in. Many states, including Texas and Colorado, require at least some disclosure of the chemicals used in fracking.



---三菱商事、カナダでLNG合弁生産へ 日本などアジアに供給---
2012.4.12 09:52
http://sankei.jp.msn.com/economy/news/120412/biz12041209560004-n1.htm

 三菱商事と英蘭系ロイヤル・ダッチ・シェル、中国石油天然気集団(CNPC)、韓国ガス公社の4社がカナダ西海岸で共同で液化天然ガス(LNG)生産に参画することで最終調整していることが分かった。4社はそれぞれシェールガスと呼ばれる地中の頁岩(けつがん)に含まれる新型ガス田の権益をもち、そのガスをパイプラインで輸送、液化し、2020年までに生産を開始し、日本やアジアに輸出したい考え。
 プラントの規模は1200万トンで総事業費は1兆円超とみられる。福島第1原発事故後の原発停止に伴う代替火力用のLNG需要が増大する中で北米から安定的なLNG調達にめどをつけ、調達先の多様化につなげる狙いがある。
 建設するのはカナダ西海岸のキティマット周辺。4社が設立する合併会社の比率などは未定で、近く合意した後、カナダ政府の許認可を得た上で4-5年をかけて建設し、2020年前後の生産、輸出を計画している。三菱商事は2月にカナダの資源会社エンカナからシェールガス田の権益を取得しており、年900万トンのガス引き取り分の一部をLNG基地から出荷する。
 最大の輸入国である日本と、韓国、韓国が手を組むことで、需要が伸びるアジア向けLNGの安定供給体制を築く。
 日本のLNG需要は2012年は前年比約7.1%増の8897万トン(LNG換算)が見込まれており、中東やアジア、豪州以外の調達先の多様化が急がれている。
 価格決定方式は未定だが、石油連動ではなく、北米ガス価格連動になれば輸入価格の抑制も期待されている。


---愛知県沖で産出へ、海底掘削終了 メタンハイドレート---
2012/03/27 11:30
http://www.47news.jp/CN/201203/CN2012032701002414.html

 独立行政法人石油天然ガス・金属鉱物資源機構(JOGMEC)は27日、愛知県渥美半島沖で2月から進めていた次世代エネルギー資源「メタンハイドレート」の産出に向けた海底掘削作業を終えたことを明らかにした。
 当初は、メタンハイドレートを産出したり、周辺の温度変化などを観測したりする井戸計4本を設置する計画だった。しかし、海底での作業の様子を船上に伝える遠隔操作ロボットのケーブルを誤って切断する作業ミスがあり、3本しか完成しなかった。
 来年1~3月には、世界初の海洋産出試験を実施する。

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