2012年5月21日月曜日

Election2012 Negative Campaign Start

次期大統領選が本格化した。
 米大統領選に向け、民主党のオバマ米大統領と、共和党候補で指名を
確実にしているロムニー前マサチューセッツ州知事陣営によるネガティブ
・キャンペーンが激しさを増している。

オバマ陣営
・ロムニー氏の手法は、自分と投資家の利益のためなら、従業員と地域
 社会を犠牲にしてまで企業売買を繰り返すものだ
・大金を積んでも大統領の椅子は買えない
・ロムニー氏は現行税制の恩恵を受けている

ロムニー陣営
・約7200億ドルに上る巨額の財政赤字は、オバマ政権の無策。
・オバマ政権の無駄遣いは制御不能

やっと米次期大統領選挙戦が本格化してきた。
誹謗することで、立候補者の人物像を把握する変な情報戦。
一日で360回のテレビ広告を入れるようなので、資金が無ければできない。
情報探しに、脚本、撮影、編集等専門家も担当するため、さらに資金が
必要とのこと。
他の立候補者を蹴落とすために、投票者に寄付した人はどれくらいいる
のだろうか。

米大統領選 金持ちのお遊び
OBAMA Black Bus Tour
GOP Negative Campain
I will transmit this information
OBAMA Live Free or Die Campaign


Saved


Mother's Day - Restore Our Future


Heads or Tails


---オバマVS.ロムニー ネガティブキャンペーン本格化---
2012.5.15 19:20
http://sankei.jp.msn.com/world/news/120515/amr12051519210007-n1.htm

 【ワシントン=佐々木類】11月の米大統領選に向け、民主党のオバマ米大統領と、共和党候補で指名を確実にしているロムニー前マサチューセッツ州知事陣営によるネガティブ・キャンペーンが激しさを増している。オバマ陣営は14日、ロムニー氏が創業した投資会社「ベインキャピタル」時代の経営手法を批判するビデオを公開。ロムニー陣営はオバマ政権下での財政悪化に焦点を当てた選挙戦を展開すると発表した。
 「ロムニー氏は利益のためなら平気で従業員を解雇する。雇用の破壊者だ」
 オバマ選対が作成したビデオに出演したのは、ロムニー氏が買収したミズーリ州カンザスシティーの鉄鋼会社の元従業員だ。
 オバマ選対幹部は「ロムニー氏の手法は、自分と投資家の利益のためなら、従業員と地域社会を犠牲にしてまで企業売買を繰り返すものだ」と批判する。共和党予備選で他候補が攻撃した同氏の“弱点”に、オバマ陣営が便乗した形だ。
 オバマ氏は今月から始めた本格遊説で、「大金を積んでも大統領の椅子は買えない」と述べ、経営者の成功体験を国政に持ち込むのは危険だと指摘した。
 オバマ陣営は一方で、富裕層向け増税を争点の柱に置く。年収100万ドル(約8000万円)以上に最低30%の所得税を課すもので、中間層に格差是正を訴え、金持ち臭さがつきまとうロムニー氏との違いを鮮明にする作戦だ。メッシーナ選対本部長は「ロムニー氏は現行税制の恩恵を受けている」と批判する。
 一方、ロムニー氏は15日にアイオワ州を訪れ、約7200億ドル(約57兆6000億円)に上る巨額の財政赤字を取り上げ、「オバマ政権の無策」(陣営)を批判する。10日に財務省が発表した4月の財政収支が、単月とはいえ、オバマ政権下で初めて黒字に転じたのに危機感を強めたものだ。
 累積赤字の大きさを強調することで、オバマ政権の財政失政を有権者に印象付ける狙いがある。共和党全国委員会のプリバス委員長は14日、「オバマ政権の無駄遣いは制御不能」とこき下ろした。


---King of Negative Ads Goes Positive in Latest Buy---
By Julie Bykowicz  | May 16, 2012 7:07 AM EDT
http://go.bloomberg.com/political-economy/2012-05-16/king-of-negative-ads-goes-positive-in-latest-buy/

Restore Our Future, a super-PAC supporting Mitt Romney, was a killing machine during the Republican presidential primary contests, blasting opponents Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich with more than $35 million worth of negative ads.

But has the super-PAC since embraced its softer side?

Restore Our Future has just one television ad in heavy rotation these days, a feel-good spot called “Saved,” in which a father explains how Romney shut down Bain Capital LLC for a day to help him search for his missing daughter.

It has aired 5,000 times in the past 30 days, on broadcast stations from Denver to Charlotte to Tampa, according to New York-based Kantar Media’s CMAG, which tracks political ads. The only other Restore Our Future ad now playing, a Mother’s Day-themed spot that dusts off two Democrats’ criticism of stay-at-home-mom Ann Romney, has aired just 360 times, CMAG shows.

The two ads are part of what the Associated Press said is a $4 million ad buy. “Saved” also circulated during primary season, but it was all but lost in the flood of attack ads. Overall, however, “Saved” has aired more than any other Restore Our Future spot, 9,926 times in all, at an estimated cost of at least $7 million, according to CMAG.

Meanwhile, a super-PAC supporting Barack Obama, has entered the general-election fray, and it’s going negative. Priorities USA Action announced a $4 million TV and social media buy of spots in which Romney is portrayed as a ruthless businessman who drained companies of jobs.

It appears that both super-PACs are trying to define Mitt Romney. Restore spokeswoman Brittany Gross said the super-PAC never discusses strategy; Priorities co-founder Bill Burton called the line of attack in his new ad “obvious.”

Here’s the Romney we see in the Restore ad:

Romney helped Bain Capital Managing Director Robert Gay search for his 14-year-old daughter, who’d disappeared for three days in 1996.

“My business partner stepped forward to take charge. He closed the company and brought almost all of our employees to New York. He says, ‘I don’t care how long it takes, we’re going to find her,’” Gay says in the ad, his voice breaking. “Mitt’s done a lot of things that people say are nearly impossible, but for me the most important thing he’s ever done is to help save my daughter.”

The girl was found safe at her boyfriend’s home in a well-to-do New Jersey suburb.

Here’s Romney as portrayed in the Priorities ad:

Romney’s Bain Capital took over GST Steel, a Kansas City steel plant, in 1993. After years of job cuts, the company filed for bankruptcy in 2001, though that was two years after Romney left Bain to run the Olympics in Salt Lake City.

“With Romney and Bain Capital, the objective was to make money. Whether the companies they came in and worked with made money or not was irrelevant,” former GST employee Pat Wells says in the ad. “He promised us the same things he’s promising the United States. He’ll give you the same thing he gave us: nothing. He’ll take it all.


---Candidates Gird For A 'Scorched Earth' Campaign---
by Alan Greenblatt
May 16, 2012
http://www.npr.org/2012/05/15/152775642/candidates-gird-for-scorched-earth-campaign-season

If President Obama is already running campaign ads that showcase people describing Mitt Romney as a "vampire" and a "job destroyer," what will the ads be like by November?

It's not unusual for an incumbent president to launch springtime attacks against a challenger, but the tone of the ads Obama has already run regarding Romney's business record and his views on foreign policy and social issues portend a highly negative campaign, political observers say.

"It's hyperbole every election to say, 'This is the most negative election ever,' " says Republican consultant Dave Carney. "I think hyperbole will be fact this cycle."

Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, has not shied from criticizing Obama, running hostile ads and devoting the bulk of most of his speeches to claims that a second Obama term would do serious harm to the economy and individual freedom.

But a challenger will always attack. A presidential race can turn particularly vicious when the incumbent feels vulnerable and begins castigating his opponent.

"When they feel the heat, that's when they bring out the heavy artillery, says Kerwin Swint, author of Mudslingers: The Twenty-Five Dirtiest Political Campaigns of All Time.

With the economy still wobbly and Obama barely ahead or sometimes trailing Romney in the latest polls, the president's campaign will do everything it can to sully Romney's name before swing voters can picture him comfortably in the White House, Swint says

"They don't want to give independents a chance to get used to Mitt Romney as a credible president," says Swint, a political scientist at Kennesaw State University in Georgia. "Those images of greed and laying people off - that's what they want to shape over the summer."

Not Above The Fray

There was a time presidents seeking re-election shied away from tearing down their opponents, at least this early in the campaign year.

Bill Clinton began running TV ads a full year ahead of his 1996 re-election bid, but they criticized Republicans in general, as opposed to his eventual opponent, Bob Dole. In 1984, Ronald Reagan barely mentioned his Democratic challenger, Walter Mondale, until the fall.

George W. Bush took a more aggressive approach in 2004. As soon as Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry had sewn up the Democratic nomination, Bush went on the attack.

"The day after Super Tuesday, Bush had a meeting at the White House and said, 'Let's go after Kerry as a flip-flopper,' " says William Schneider, a veteran political analyst who teaches public policy at George Mason University. "It was Bush, not Karl Rove, who decided on the strategy."

Bush not only attacked Kerry, he sought to undermine Kerry's ability to present himself as a war hero and not a wimpy Democrat.

Obama now is trying to do the same thing against Romney, whose success as a "turnaround artist" in business and public service is the driving premise of his campaign.

"What they're trying to do in both cases is to chip away at their opponent's perceived strength," says Jim Jordan, a Democratic consultant who served as Kerry's campaign manager for part of his presidential run.

"As distasteful as it is for me to analogize between Obama and the Bush folks, that is a fair [comparison]," Jordan says. "It's a very smart strategy for the Obama guys to be using."

Sending A Message

Republicans say Obama is going on the attack because of the weakness of his own record. But this campaign was bound to be negative because of the very real differences between the two candidates across a variety of policy areas, says David Mark, author of Going Dirty: The Art of Negative Campaigning.

"It's a clashing vision of government," Mark says. "It's inevitably going to be negative and a contrast between the candidates."

Mark, a senior editor at Politico, says Romney learned from his first run for elective office - his 1994 Senate race - that he needs to respond to negative attacks. (His opponent, Democratic Sen. Teddy Kennedy, also slammed Romney's record in business in that campaign.)

"Romney is going to show how pugilistic he can be - not Mr. Nice Guy," Mark says. He certainly showed that in the primary, with attacks against Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum.

Obama, who has a similarly technocratic and perhaps even more dispassionate image, has already shown that he intends to give as good as he gets - or better.

"I was shocked that the Obama campaign wasn't up and hitting Romney harder a couple of weeks ago," says Ken Goldstein, president of the Campaign Media Analysis Group at Kantar Media, an ad-tracking firm.

Now is the time for Obama to go after Romney, Goldstein says, before impressions of Romney are fully formed and before any distinct campaign message gets lost in the noise and heat of the race in the fall.

"The whole story of the 2012 campaign is how similar it is to 2004," Goldstein adds.

More Money, More Ads

But the campaign finance landscape has changed dramatically since George W. Bush's re-election bid eight years ago.

There have long been attack ads run by outside groups, but the budgets of superPACs this year are expected to be far larger than anything seen before. In addition, both Obama and Romney are doing their own fundraising, as opposed to relying on limited funds provided by the federal government, as most previous candidates had done.

It's typical for incumbents to try to "scorch the earth" around lesser-known, underfunded challengers, says Carney, the GOP consultant. But Romney, he points out, is not an unknown at this point and certainly won't be underfunded. He'll be getting help from groups such as Crossroads GPS, a Republican organization associated with Rove that was highly influential in the 2010 elections and is now planning a 10-state, $25 million ad blitz.

And while the conventional wisdom this year has been that the campaigns themselves will outsource much of the work of negative attacks to superPACs, letting them do the dirty work, the opposite may be true. There will be so much money involved in this campaign that the candidates themselves will have to lob and answer attacks, to make sure messages they control get heard.

"Voters see a superPAC's negative ad and they don't dissociate it with the candidate," says Jordan, the Democratic consultant. "As a candidate, you carry the attacks your side makes - they stick to you."


---Blitz of Campaign Ads Is Early and Aggressive---
By JEREMY W. PETERS
Published: May 16, 2012
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/17/us/politics/campaign-ads-early-and-aggressive.html

The presidential campaign is erupting into a full-scale advertising war, with both candidates and their allies pouring huge sums into early and aggressive efforts to define the fight on their terms.

At least $50 million worth of ads will appear in swing states in the next several weeks as President Obama and Mitt Romney move swiftly to win over voters now, casting aside concerns that their money will be wasted on people who are not paying much attention five and a half months before Election Day.

The latest volley came on Wednesday, when Crossroads GPS, a political group formed by Karl Rove and other top Republican strategists, unveiled a $25 million advertising campaign. The group opened with a hard-hitting commercial that casts Mr. Obama as a failed leader, unable to deliver on his pledges to fix the country’s problems.

“President Obama’s agenda promised so much,” it says over the sound of breaking glass. “He hasn’t even come close. We need solutions, not just promises.”

The Crossroads campaign matches the $25 million advertising offensive that the Obama campaign began last week. Other outside political groups and “super PACs” have committed at least an additional $15 million in recent weeks, mostly to Mr. Romney’s benefit, according to Kantar Media.

There is almost certainly more to come before the highly viewed spring television schedule winds down for the summer. Many central players, including the Democratic and Republican Party committees and Mr. Romney’s campaign, have been largely absent from TV in recent weeks and are sitting on large piles of cash. Mr. Romney, who had more than $10 million in the bank at the end of March and has been busily raising money in the last few weeks, has not advertised since Rick Santorum dropped his bid for the Republican nomination a month ago.

Such a high volume of ads coming before the summer - many of them negative and concentrated in a handful of battleground states - further reinforces the belief among political strategists that this election will see an unusually heavy and vicious air war as outside political groups assume a larger role than ever.

In dueling sets of ads, each side offers its perspective on the improvement, or lack thereof, that the country has made under Mr. Obama. The new Crossroads ad pushes the narrative that despite his lofty vision for a better America, Mr. Obama - and indeed the nation - has made little progress in three and a half years.

In its ads, the Obama campaign tries to remind voters of the deep economic crisis the president inherited and argues that he has set the country on the right path.

“It’s still too hard for too many,” the opening ad of his $25 million campaign says. “We’re not there yet. It’s still too hard for too many. But we’re coming back.”

In previous years, ad spending has been heavy but not as narrowly focused on such a small number of states. In 2004, for example, George W. Bush’s campaign was spending $5 million every week on television ads after Senator John Kerry emerged as the Democratic nominee. But the campaign initially spread its advertising over 17 states.

“I think the key word is concentrated,” said Kenneth M. Goldstein, president of Kantar Media’s Campaign Media Analysis Group. “This tells us that it’s not 13 or 14 states that matter. It’s seven or eight.”

With the Crossroads ads, set to start running on Thursday, the president and his opponents will be on television head to head in nine states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia.

The rush to advertise now reflects a belief among political strategists on both sides that they have a small window of time to frame the election. Only a few weeks remain before the busy television-watching season slows down and summer reruns begin. The Olympics start at the end of July, a time when most Americans will hardly be thinking about politics. Many strategists believe they will not have an opportunity to connect with voters again until the political conventions begin in late August.

“The first ads that are run are in many ways the most important because the mind is the most open and uncluttered at that point,” said Carter Eskew, a veteran Democratic strategist. By late summer and early fall, he said, political advertising has reached the saturation point.

“Most people are sick of it because you have ads for president, then Senate, then dog catcher and assistant dog catcher,” he said. “It’s back to back to back.”

The new Crossroads campaign fills a void in those crucial states. Mr. Romney’s super PAC has been running ads sporadically, including a sarcasm-laden Mother’s Day spot that took two notable Democrats to task for their dismissive comments about Ann Romney, a stay-at-home mother. “Happy Mother’s Day from Barack Obama’s team,” said the narrator, a soft-spoken woman.

Mr. Romney, however, has been quiet. Stuart Stevens, a senior Romney strategist, would not elaborate on Wednesday about the campaign’s plans. But Romney videographers have been interviewing people across the country about their economic woes.

The role of super PACs in providing that auxiliary support has been essential, experts said.

“It’s to your advantage to offload your work to the super PACs,” said Erika Franklin Fowler, director of the Wesleyan Media Project, which tracks political ads. “In a world in which campaigns can’t technically coordinate with super PACs, one way of doing things is waiting to see what the other is doing and then filling in the gaps.”

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