2014年2月20日木曜日

Egypt Russian Arms Deal

エジプトは、露から兵器購入する契約をしたようだ。
 露とエジプトは、モスクワで外務・防衛閣僚協議(2プラス2)を開き、
軍事分野での協力を深めることで合意した。公表していないが、露から
エジプトへの最新兵器の販売でも合意したとみられる。エジプトと同盟
関係にある米国は、昨年七月にエジプト軍が事実上のクーデターでモル
シ前政権を倒して以降、大型兵器供与などの軍事援助を凍結。反発する
エジプトと、中東での影響力強化を狙うロシアの思惑が一致し、接近
を図っている。

外務・防衛閣僚協議
・2013年11月 第一回 カイロで開催
・2014年2月  第二回 モスクワで開催
・最新兵器を売買する契約
 露がエジプトに防空システムや戦闘機、攻撃ヘリなど三十億ドル分の
 最新兵器を販売する契約で合意説。
 契約額を二十億ドルとの合意説。
 代金はサウジアラビアとアラブ首長国連邦が支援。

エジプトの政治体制は、厳冬のまま。
民主主義とテロリストに対して、独裁政治がを好むエジプト国民。
本当は、言うことを聞かなかった政府を軍がクーデターで実権を握った
だけのように見える。
宗教争いと宗派争いを利用したのが軍か。
米国から資金援助を断られても、露からもらう。その次は、中国か。
米国がイスラエルを抑えていたが、その必要もなくなりそうだ。


エジプト厳冬 クーデターにはクーデターで
エジプト-イスラエル軍共同作戦
米政府 エジプト軍事支援打切りへ


---ロシア・エジプト軍事協力強化 米支援凍結で接近 ロ最新兵器の売却合意---
2014年2月15日 朝刊
http://www.tokyo-np.co.jp/article/world/news/CK2014021502000112.html

 【モスクワ=宮本隆彦】ロシアとエジプトは十三日、モスクワで外務・防衛閣僚協議(2プラス2)を開き、軍事分野での協力を深めることで合意した。公表していないが、ロシアからエジプトへの最新兵器の販売でも合意したとみられる。エジプトと同盟関係にある米国は、昨年七月にエジプト軍が事実上のクーデターでモルシ前政権を倒して以降、大型兵器供与などの軍事援助を凍結。反発するエジプトと、中東での影響力強化を狙うロシアの思惑が一致し、接近を図っている。
 協議は昨年十一月にカイロで開催したのに続き二回目。十四日付のロシア経済紙ベドモスチは軍需産業関係者の話として、ロシアがエジプトに防空システムや戦闘機、攻撃ヘリなど三十億ドル(約三千億円)分の最新兵器を販売する契約で合意したと伝えた。インタファクス通信は十三日、エジプト紙の報道を引用して契約額を二十億ドルと報道。代金はサウジアラビアとアラブ首長国連邦が支援する見通しだと伝えた。
 協議には、四月下旬にも行われるエジプト大統領選で当選が有力視される国防相で軍最高評議会議長のシシ氏が出席。ロシアのショイグ国防相と、合同軍事演習や空軍と海軍の協力拡大などをめぐり話し合った。
 ロシアのラブロフ外相は、エジプトのファハミ外相との会談後、「軍事面での協力に弾みをつける文書の準備を急ぐ」と成果を強調した。
 エジプトは一九五〇~六〇年代には旧ソ連から軍事面を含め支援を受けていたが、七〇年代半ば以後は米国との関係を強化。米国にとっては中東政策の要となっていた。しかしエジプト軍によるクーデターを受け、民主化を求めるオバマ政権は昨年十月、二億六千万ドル(約二百六十億円)規模の軍事支援を凍結。これに反発するエジプトがロシアへの接近を図っている。


---Russia offers Egypt no-strings-attached arms deal---
Oren Dorell, USA TODAY 9:03 p.m. EST February 13, 2014
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/02/13/russia-egypt-arms-deal/5459563/

Russia's proposed arms deal with Egypt and its endorsement of Egypt's military ruler's run for president are a signal to Arab rulers that, unlike the United States, Russia will back anti-terrorist strongmen who trample human rights, analysts say.

"Our assistance comes with lectures on human rights and civil-military relations," says Jeffrey White, an analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "With Russian assistance, you don't get those lectures."

Egypt's army chief, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, was in Moscow to negotiate a $2 billion arms deal Thursday. During the visit, Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed his support for al-Sisi's political ambitions.

"I know that you, Mr. defense minister, have decided to run for president of Egypt," Putin said, according to the BBC. "I wish you luck both from myself personally and from the Russian people."

Al-Sisi said his visit "offers a new start" to the development of military and technological co-operation between the two countries, and that he hopes the relationship accelerates.

The United States, Egypt's primary supplier of military goods since a 1979 peace agreement between Egypt and Israel, scaled back some of its aid last year in response to al-Sisi's ousting of Egypt's first democratically elected president. Egypt's military says it sided with millions of Egyptians who accused the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohammed Morsi of trying to implement a theocratic dictatorship.

The military crackdown that followed has resulted in 2,500 deaths and more than 20,000 arrests since July, says Michele Dunne, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Yet the U.S. response angered Egypt's Arab allies in the Persian Gulf, who see the Brotherhood and its Islamist followers across the Middle East as a threat to their own regimes, and the rift has created an opening for Putin, Dunne said.

"We're seeing Putin trying to step up Russia's game in foreign affairs, almost reviving a Cold War-type rivalry between Russia and the United States," always trying to step in where the United States seems wavering or ineffective," Dunne said.

Russian policy has been similar in Syria, where Russia backs the regime of Bashar Assad in its slaughter of more than 130,000 of its rebellious citizens, Dunne said.

Last summer, as President Obama wavered on his pledge to launch military strikes if Assad used chemical weapons, Putin stepped in with a diplomatic venture to round up and expel Bashar Assad's chemical stockpile.

Obama abandoned his plan to hit Syria, agreed to work with Assad and angered his Sunni allies in the Gulf who back the mostly Sunni Syrian rebellion.

Those soured relations with the Gulf monarchies also play a role in the Russia-Egypt arms deal, Dunne said.

"Russia is not going to do what the United States does, which is give these weapons to Egypt" for free, Dunne said. "The only way there could be a new Russia-Egypt defense relationship is by Saudi and Gulf financing."

The arms purchase is a Saudi "finger in the eye" of the United States, she said.

While few details about the arms deal are available, the $2 billion price tag suggests "a significant arrangement" for major systems like aircraft or major air defenses, White said.

Russia has offered to sell Egypt stealth aircraft, advanced fighters and special operations equipment, according to Defense News, which cited Theodore Karasik, director of research at the Institute of Near East and Gulf Military Analysis, a think tank in United Arab Emirates.

Such arms sales typically include training packages, meaning Egyptian officers will travel to Moscow, "which could help (Russia) re-establish a solid connection with the Egyptian military," White said. "This is very significant I think," he said.

Aaron David Miller, a former U.S. adviser to Republican and Democratic secretaries of State, says the importance of the $2 billion deal should not be overblown.

The United States last year inked a $60 billion military package with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. And the U.S. has been reluctant to back reformist elements in Sunni-led Bahrain, home to the Navy's 5th fleet, where Saudi and Emirati forces helped quell a popular Shiite-majority protest movement in 2012. That shows the U.S. acquiescing to Gulf monarchy security concerns, Miller said.

Despite Obama's stated goal to pivot to Asia, "the Middle East will be the center of U.S. focus for years to come because that's where the threat is," Miller said.

Although Russia may gain a toehold, it won't replace the United States, he said. "We're still the most viable power in the region other than Iran."

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